Homicide Rate in China: 1800 to Today (and Tomorrow)

The measure of a society is often found in the safety of its streets and the quiet stability of its daily life. When we track the homicide rate, we are tracing the tangible risk of violence that has touched generations of families. In the 1800s estimate 5.98 per 100,000, life carried a weight of insecurity that has gradually lightened over time. Today, the reality is starkly different; in the 2020s, homicide rate in China stands at 0.5 per 100,000 — ranking #4 of 157 countries.

The trajectory of this data reveals a long, consistent decline across three centuries. Starting from the 1800s estimate 5.98, the figures moved through 1900s estimate 3.27 and 1950s 1.68, eventually reaching the current 2020s 0.5. This downward trend is not merely a statistical curiosity; it represents a profound shift in the organization of a nation. Projections suggest this path will continue, moving toward 2050s projection 0.43 and ultimately 2100s projection 0.33, reflecting an evolving environment where the fundamental nature of human safety continues to change.

For any person born across this timeline, these numbers define the baseline of their personal security. A life lived in the 1810s estimate 5.71 faced a vastly different probability of harm than one starting in the 2030s projection 0.48. As these rates have descended from the 1840s estimate 4.89 down to the modern 2010s 0.62, the collective experience of living in China has been transformed by these shifting probabilities. Use our interactive tool to see where you rank among everyone ever born.